Two weeks after getting pummeled by UNC, Virginia is back in the state of North Carolina. The Hoos will hope to manufacture a better result in their return to the Tar Heel State. They’ll head to PNC Arena for a matchup with NC State.
Virginia started the new year with a pair of encouraging road victories over Syracuse and Clemson, but has since fallen off. The loss to UNC was a significant setback after the improved play against Syracuse and Clemson, and since the defeat, Virginia has been unable to regain its prior form. The Hoos eked out a home win over Virginia Tech before collapsing late against Wake Forest and clawing their way to a road victory over Pittsburgh.
Individual growth is evident in a few places on the roster—Reece Beekman and Francisco Caffaro being the obvious examples—but Virginia is still struggling to play solid team basketball. The ultimate goal, of course, is to make the NCAA Tournament, and that goal is still within reach. Wins are requisite if Virginia is to go dancing; the Hoos will hunt one as they take on the Wolfpack.
The opponent
Enough conference games have been played to begin referencing the ACC standings, and NC State sits close to the bottom of them. Kevin Keatts and the Wolfpack are 14th in the 15-team league, with a 2-6 conference record.
NC State’s season has gone just as poorly as that record suggests. The Wolfpack are 9-10 on the year, their resume marred by losses to Wright State and Richmond. They’ve also played a number of close games against bad teams. NC State’s ACC wins have come against Virginia Tech and Louisville.
The Wolfpack have lost seven of their last nine games, a run that includes a five-game losing streak. Coming into this game, they’ve lost two games in a row.
KenPom paints a similar picture of NC State, ranking the Wolfpack as the 106th-best team in the nation. A closer look reveals more specifics: NC State possesses a robust offense that checks in at 46th in the country, but an ailing defense that ranks as the nation’s 204th-best (Virginia is 99th and 69th, respectively)
As usual, Kevin Keatts’s group is launching more threes per game than any other ACC team. In conference play, they’ve cashed in on those shots at a 35% rate, good for sixth in the conference. Virginia is vulnerable to good three-point shooting nights from opposing teams, so those numbers are worthy of concern.
Also worrying is how prolific the Wolfpack have been on the offensive boards. NC State is pulling down over 12 offensive rebounds per game, also tops in the conference. A Virginia team that’s proven itself to be weak on the glass could suffer because of this, too.
There are also some talented players dotting NC State’s roster. Dereon Seabron, a 6’7” guard, has been the standout, averaging 19.3 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. Seabron is an offensive monster, quick and with the one-two punch of strength and length, but struggles to shoot the ball.
Following him into battle is Terquavion Smith, who scores 14.6 points per game, and Jericole Hellems, who scores 14.2 points per outing while hitting 40% of his threes. Also of note to Virginia fans is the presence of Casey Morsell, who transferred away from Charlottesville after last season. Morsell has featured prominently for the Wolfpack, scoring 7.3 points per game while shooting 37.3% from deep—a stat that will stun Virginia fans who spent two years watching Morsell shoot nothing but bricks from three-point land.
It’s clearly been a bumpy season for the Wolfpack, but they possess some impressive offensive talent. Their proficiency in the areas where Virginia is most vulnerable could catapult them over the Hoos.
The prediction
It pains me to say this, but I think NC State is going to win this game. It just feels like a perfect storm: Virginia has been unconvincing lately, the Hoos are on the road and they’ll be facing a team that has most of the components of the “beat Virginia” formula.
If Virginia is to prove this prediction false, they’re going to have to avoid the crippling scoring droughts that they’ve become associated with. The Hoos routinely go four minutes or longer without putting the ball in the basket. As mentioned above, there are gaping tears in the NC State defensive fabric, but Virginia has still struggled at times to exploit bad defenses like NC State’s.
Jayden Gardner has to play well again, and the Hoos need to make some threes. Also—Kihei Clark must emerge from hibernation. He seems to have burrowed beneath the ice for winter, but Virginia’s veteran guard needs to thaw if the Hoos are to make the necessary offensive strides.
But it’s unrealistic to hope that everything will fall into place in just one night. If Virginia starts to progress in small increments, it will be more than satisfactory. Hopefully that process will begin with a win over NC State.
Virginia at NC State will tip at 4 pm EST, and air on ACCN.
Image – Virginia Athletics