Virginia vs Notre Dame preview: road test looms for improving Hoos

Virginia hit the halfway point of its ACC schedule on Monday night. The win over Louisville ended an arduous hike up the first half of the conference slate. But now that the Hoos have crested the summit, they need to pick their way back down the mountain. And that is a far more treacherous task.

The second half of Virginia’s ACC schedule features five games against the league’s top three teams: two games each against first-place Miami and second-place Duke, and one against third-place Notre Dame. They’ll also face sixth-place Florida State. 

That gauntlet begins with a trip to South Bend, where Virginia will take on a hot Notre Dame team. A hostile road environment awaits for a team that needs to get something going in a hurry.

The opponent

Notre Dame has taken nine wins from their last 10 games. Their sole loss in that span was a 6-point defeat at Virginia Tech. Outside the ACC, the Irish have one notable win: Kentucky. Given how good the 12th-ranked Wildcats look, that’s an extremely impressive victory.

But Mike Brey’s squad has also accumulated losses to Saint Mary’s, Texas A&M and Boston College. 

Still, it’s nine out of 10 and three in a row for Notre Dame. In their last two games, the Irish, like Virginia, played NC State and Louisville. Also like Virginia, they beat Louisville by 12. But they did what the Hoos couldn’t against NC State, earning a victory.

KenPom ranks the Irish as the 60th best team in the nation; 36th offensively and 108th defensively. Of some concern for Virginia is Notre Dame’s proficiency from beyond the arc. In ACC play, the Irish are hitting 41% of their attempts from deep. They’re prolific as well as efficient from three-point land, making over 10 threes per game.

Notre Dame is a tall team, bigger than Virginia at nearly every position. That starts in the backcourt, where 6’6” Dane Goodwin averages 15.8 points per game on 49% shooting from three and 6’5” Blake Wesley scores 15 points per game. In the frontcourt, Paul Atknison and Nate Laszewski are a destructive duo. Laszewski has torched Virginia in the past, and at an agile 6’10”, is capable of becoming the latest athletic big to wreak havoc on the Wahoo defense.

The Irish can hurt opponents in multiple ways, but in truth, they live and die by the three. For most of the season, they haven’t just lived on the three—they’ve thrived on it. But in losses to Indiana, Boston College and Texas A&M, they shot 18%, 29% and 23% on threes, respectively. If Virginia can somehow frustrate the Irish from deep—not the packline’s strength, admittedly—they can slow down their opponent offensively.

The prediction

Your favorite Virginia basketball prognosticator is riding a three-game correct-pick streak. I was right that Virginia would beat Pittsburgh and Louisville, and while I can’t say I was happy to be picking NC State, I got that one right too.

I’m hoping my three-game streak ends, however, because I’m forecasting a Notre Dame victory.

For the first time in a long time, Virginia has fallen out of the top 100 in the KenPom defensive efficiency rankings. The Hoos are 102nd, a horrifying ranking for a program that has come to pride itself on its defense. And Notre Dame has the tools to dissect Virginia’s fragile defense. They have the three-point shooting, they have the athletic big man.

But Notre Dame’s defense is not as robust. If Virginia is to grab the road victory, they’re going to have to take advantage of that and score some points. That starts with Jayden Gardner, who, after a rough stretch of play, has scored 14, 13 and 14 points over his last three games. 

Virginia’s also going to need production from Armaan Franklin, who went 4-7 from beyond the arc against NC State and then regressed to his season average with a 1-6 night against Louisville. And if Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman can replicate recent performances, it will bode well for Virginia.

Even if the Hoos do click offensively, a road win over a streaking team is never easy. It will take a complete performance to leave South Bend with a victory.

Virginia at Notre Dame will tip at 6 pm EST and air on ACCN.

Image – Virginia Athletics