The rollercoaster of Virginia’s season has taken some particularly sharp turns as of late. After a jerky launch from the loading dock, the ride flattened for a spell but is now back to tossing the Hoos around like an accelerating car does a bag of groceries.
In the last 10 days alone, Virginia was blown out by North Carolina, fought to victory against Virginia Tech and collapsed late against Wake Forest. But the scheduling gods have gifted Virginia an opportunity to climb out of the pit. The Hoos will travel to Pittsburgh for a meeting with the worst team in the ACC.
For a Virginia team that is sliding down both the ACC standings and the list of teams with a shot to make the NCAA Tournament, this is a must-win game. It doesn’t get any easier than Pitt, even in a weak ACC.
The first meeting
It was the beginning of December when Virginia and Pitt first shared the floor. Spirits were high after the rousing second-half comeback that nearly resulted in an improbable victory over Iowa.
To phrase it bluntly: the Hoos sucked. A loss seemed inescapable as, with just 25 seconds left, Virginia trailed by four. What ensued was an incredible sequence to rival the likes of the last-second win over Louisville in 2018. Jayden Gardner cashed in on a three-point play, Pitt was whistled for a five-second violation trying to inbound the ball and Gardner’s shot at the buzzer bounced four times before dropping and giving Virginia the win.
A victory sans drama would be nice in round two.
One actually looked to be coming in that first game, as Virginia built a 10-point lead with four minutes to play in the first half. Jeff Capel then made a simple adjustment: he switched to a zone defense, immobilizing Virginia’s offense and ushering in a Virginia scoring drought that took the Hoos nearly seven minutes to break.
The Hoos were dismal from deep in the game, part of why they failed to score with the zone in effect. They also lost the rebounding battle, a recurring theme this season that’s cost Virginia on many occasions.
What Virginia did poorly, Pitt did well. The Panthers nailed 8 of 16 threes, got to the free-throw line 16 times and stopped Virginia from scoring. John Hugley, Pitt’s leading scorer, scored 12, and Jamarius Burton went for 11.
Offensively, the game was one of Virginia’s worst of the season (and that’s saying something), but they tallied a win in the end. A better performance is required to ensure victory in the second meeting.
What Pitt has done since then
Pitt has played a series of tight games since their loss to Virginia. The Panthers ended non-conference play by beating Colgate, losing to Monmouth and defeating St. John’s and Jacksonville. They started the ACC schedule with losses to Notre Dame and Louisville, a win against Boston College and a loss to Syracuse.
On Saturday, Pitt sent Louisville packing, defeating the Cardinals 65-53. For the Panthers, performances in conference play have marked a small step up from non-conference play.
The prediction
This just feels like a game Virginia’s going to win. The Hoos have progressed in some areas recently and deteriorated in others, but it seems like time for things to really start clicking.
That starts with Gardner breaking out of his slump. The first time out against Pitt, he scored 15 points and engineered Virginia’s last-minute heist. That has to mean something. At his best, Gardner is the best player on this team; it’s tough to believe that he’ll play three bad games in a row.
Also working in Virginia’s favor is a defense that’s clamped down for long stretches of late. And it’s possible that Armaan Franklin and Kody Stattmann continue to hail down threes on opponents the way they did against Wake.
The rebounding battle is an area of concern, as Virginia struggled to control the defensive boards in the first matchup with Pitt and on Saturday against Wake.
But while Pitt is essentially playing for nothing at this point, Virginia is still alive in the NCAA Tournament race and can theoretically challenge the top of the ACC. Hopes of an at-large bid are already on life support, which should give Virginia an added desperation that could help them take down Pitt.
Either way, a win is essential.
Virginia at Pittsburgh will tip at 9 pm EST and air on ACCN.
Image – Virginia Athletics