Clemson’s first bucket against Virginia came on their first possession, on a deep heave that cashed them three points. The next possession, the Tigers would hit another deep triple. The next, another. By the time the three-point barrage had abated, Clemson had amassed 9 points in just 2.5 minutes and led by 4.
Virginia would gain the lead a couple minutes later on a Jayden Gardner three, but Clemson would wrest the advantage back soon after and never give it up again. Virginia eventually fell 67-50, an embarrassing result against a mediocre team.
Now, Virginia will travel to Syracuse hoping to start 2022 with a win.
Discussion of Virginia’s NCAA Tournament resume is becoming increasingly academic with each loss, but if the Hoos are to turn things around, they cannot afford to soil their resume with another loss to a middling opponent. Emerging from the Carrier Dome with a win would be massive.
The opponent
On paper, Syracuse has not been the most stout defensive unit. They rank 162nd on KenPom in the defensive efficiency category, and have conceded 89 points to Auburn and a whopping 100 to Colgate.
But it’s likely that Virginia will run into trouble against the Orange’s trademark zone.
The primary vulnerability of the 2-3 zone is the three-point shot. In the past, Virginia has been able to expose that weakness, notably when they poured in 18 threes in the Carrier Dome a few years ago. Kyle Guy hit 8 triples, De’Andre Hunter made 5, and Ty Jerome added a further 5. Virginia does not quite have that same firepower this year.
The Hoos will have to use Jayden Gardner to find the gaps in the zone. Attacking off the dribble will be a largely futile venture, and Tony Bennett might have to play his shooters more liberally in order to find success from deep.
On the other end of the floor, things don’t get much better for Virginia. Syracuse’s primary scorers are the Boeheim duo (yes, there are two of them now; Jimmy transferred in from Cornell to join Buddy), and the Cuse also draw notable output from Joe Girard and Cole Swider. Jesse Edwards, a 6’11” center, rounds out the Syracuse offensive attack.
Girard is a lethal three-point shooter, shooting 49% for the season. Jimmy Boeheim’s 41% average from deep is also fear-inducing. But “Buddy Buckets,” as the younger Boeheim has been dubbed, is only hitting 31% of his tries from beyond the arc. Past the starting five, the Syracuse roster contains few offensive threats. The sixth man averages a paltry 2.3 points per game.
The Orange will enter the game hungry, having meandered to a 7-5 record. They were 5-5 before sweeping the Ivy League portion of their schedule: a pair of games against Brown and Cornell. While not quite worthy of designation as a “good” team, Syracuse’s style of play could give Virginia fits.
The prediction
Pessimism is, understandably, a disease currently afflicting the Virginia fanbase. There are few things more frustrating than watching your basketball team toil for 30 seconds every offensive possession, only to pedal back on defense points-less.
Virginia’s defense has been fine. But in the words of CBS Sports’s Jon Rothstein, “this offense is offensive.” A major revitalization is required on the offensive front, and there has been no indication that it’s forthcoming.
With that in mind, I’m forecasting a Syracuse victory.
Unless Virginia catches fire from deep, it’s going to be a long night on offense. And on defense, look for Girard to torch the Hoos from beyond the arc. The Hoos are fully capable of boarding the plane home having earned another tally in the win column; the odds, however, are not in their favor.
Maybe I’m wrong, and Virginia channels the New Year’s energy coming from Times Square toward victory. Hopefully, Tony Bennett spent the time off devising a plan to put the ball in the hoop more often.
To believe it, though, most UVA fans will first have to see it.
Virginia at Syracuse will tip at 6 pm EST, and air on ACCN.
Image – Virginia Athletics