Things looked bleak just a few weeks ago for both Virginia-based ACC teams. A chasm stood, Virginia and Virginia Tech on one side and the NCAA Tournament bubble on the other.
One false step, and both teams would have slipped into that chasm and to the deaths of their postseason hopes. But Hoos and Hokies alike have managed to negotiate the divide. Each team is riding a long win streak: four games for Virginia, five for Virginia Tech.
As the last three weeks of the regular season unfold, the rivals will vie to improve their positions on the bubble. Both will use any foothold they can get to climb to the top—including each other.
The events set to transpire at Cassell Coliseum will play a huge role in determining the fates of the Hoos and Hokies. It’s too much to say the game will make or break the season, but it’s still massively significant.
The first meeting
The teams first met at JPJ on January 12. Virginia Tech missed three shots in the closing seconds and Virginia escaped with a 54-52 win.
Francisco Caffaro’s impassioned performance that night imbued Virginia with energy and added 16 points and 9 rebounds to the box score.
Also chipping in were Armaan Franklin, with 15 points, and Reece Beekman, with 11 points and 5 assists.
Virginia played solid defense. But Keve Aluma, an unstoppable force for all 40 minutes, went for 22 points. Hunter Cattoor, the Hokies’ premier three-point shooter, scored 10.
The game was a grinder, and Virginia barely scraped out the victory.
What Virginia Tech has done since then
Losing to Virginia sent Virginia Tech to the bottom of the ACC standings with an 0-4 conference record. The Hokies have since clawed their way back to a 7-7 league record.
After losing three close games in a row to Boston College, North Carolina and Miami, Virginia Tech ripped off a five-game win streak composed of wins over Florida State, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh (again) and Syracuse. The margin of victory was 12 points or greater in all but one of those games.
Despite being just 15-10 and seventh in the ACC, the analytics love Virginia Tech. The Hokies are 38th in the NET Rankings and 29th on KenPom. Kenpom ranks them 19th on offense and 91st on defense. Those numbers are considerably higher than Virginia’s. The Hoos are 77th in the NET and 76th on KenPom. Kenpom ranks Virginia 71st on offense and 87th on defense.
Virginia Tech’s recent play has been convincing, even if the Hokies haven’t beaten any team near the top of the ACC.
Virginia Tech is the second-best three-point shooting team in the nation, a worrying fact for Virginia. The Hoos have always been most vulnerable from the perimeter.
But in good news, the Blacksburg residents are not good on the glass. They rely heavily on Aluma’s work inside and Cattoor’s contributions from deep. Justyn Mutts and Nahiem Alleyne have also been known to chip in.
Virginia matches up well with Virginia Tech. Virginia will find success if Francisco Caffaro and Kadin Shedrick can repel Aluma’s charge, and if the guards can run Cattoor off the three-point line. On offense, Virginia would do well to abandon its ill-fated attempts to score from deep in favor of feeding its strong front line.
The prediction
Virginia has looked the part of a top-25 team over the past couple weeks. But Virginia Tech hasn’t been far off that mark. And even for ascendant Virginia, going into what will be a frenzied, hostile Cassell Coliseum and emerging with a victory is a difficult task.
Still, this feels like a Virginia win. The road atmosphere will be similar to what Virginia experienced at Duke a week ago. The Hoos dealt with that pretty well—they seemed, even, to thrive on the pressure.
Jayden Gardner has been unconscious lately, Kihei Clark always steps up in huge moments, and every other member of the team has come up big at times throughout the season.
It’s going to be a battle, under the lights, on a big Monday night. Tony Bennett has his team peaking at the right time; that upward trajectory should persist.
Virginia at Virginia Tech will tip at 7 pm and air on ESPN.
Image – Virginia Athletics