Virginia edged Virginia Tech in a riveting rivalry game on Wednesday, bagging their fourth win of ACC play in the process. They’ll play for number five against Wake Forest, hoping to conclude a two-game home stand with a victory.
As usual, Tony Bennett is working magic in hauling a foundering team out of the depths to a 10-6 record. The road ahead is a long, windy one, but Virginia must take it one step at a time.
The opponent
Gone are the days in which Wake collected dust at the bottom of the ACC standings. The Deacs have been resurrected by Steve Forbes. Coach Forbes has presided over a 13-4 start to the season, and a 3-3 ACC record. In six games, Wake has already equaled their ACC win tally of a year ago.
Wake took care of business against several bad teams to open the season before falling to LSU. They then outlasted Northwestern in an overtime game, beginning a four-game win streak that included a 19-point road victory over Virginia Tech. Close losses to Louisville and Miami followed, before wins over Florida State and Syracuse.
Most recently, the Deacs fell by 12 at home to Duke. They held on for 20 minutes and trailed by 6 at the break, but were dominated in the second half.
A mixture of good offense and good defense has been the key for Wake. They rank 59th offensively and 66th defensively on KenPom.
Oklahoma transfer Alondes Williams leads the way on offense. The 6’5” guard stuffs the stat sheet, averaging 20.7 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5 assists per game. He’s followed by forward Jake Laravia, whose 14.8 points and 6.1 rebounds are both second only to Williams.
The pair is accompanied by Wake’s veteran duo of Daivien Williamson and Isaiah Mucius. Both seniors post respectable numbers.
Of this leading crop of four players, each one shoots better than 33% from beyond the arc. Williams is definitely the one to watch, as he takes by far the highest volume of shots and makes quite a few of them.
On the other side of the court, Wake will likely try to follow the Virginia Tech plan of neutralizing Clark and Gardner. They’ll look to do that with Williamson and Mucius, neither of whom has won against Virginia in their Wake Forest careers. In fact, Virginia is working on a nine-game win streak against Wake that dates back to 2014.
Wake has a good shot at breaking it.
The prediction
Let’s begin with a disclaimer: I’m not exactly impartial when it comes to picking Virginia games. If you’ve read one of these preview articles before, you know that to be true. It’s something that has led to some inaccurate predictions when I let my biases get the better of me.
Anyway, now that you’ve been warned, let’s proceed.
The one thing that separates Wake from North Carolina or Virginia Tech is their lack of a dominant big man. Steve Forbes doesn’t have an Armando Bacot or a Keve Aluma at his disposal.
Virginia’s interior defenders will be granted a reprieve because of that. Bacot and Aluma combined for a monstrous 51 points and 27 rebounds in their games against Virginia; nobody in a Wake uniform can come close to matching either player’s absurd production.
On offense, I’d expect Kihei Clark and (especially) Jayden Gardner to come out angry. Nothing can light a fire under an athlete quite like a poor performance. Look for Gardner to assert himself early, and for Clark to hunt his shot a little more.
All this is to say, I’m picking Virginia.
Virginia has spent the first couple weeks of the new year scaling the sheer cliff that separates bubble teams from the rest of the pack. A win over Wake would provide an important foothold.
Wake Forest at Virginia will tip at 4:30 pm EST and air on ACCNX
Image – Virginia Athletics